OE International pioneers the integration of econometric analysis with computable general equilibrium modelling — producing a new standard for economic evaluation worldwide.
The pioneering integration of econometrics with CGE models — a paradigm shift from calibration to estimation, with real options, climate dynamics and distributional effects in a single framework.
Explore →Assignments for the World Bank, FIFA, WTO, IRENA, AICS and governments across five continents — each evaluated through the integrated CGE-econometric platform.
Explore →Essays by Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo on sovereign debt, global disorder, the green transition, epistemic uncertainty and the political economy of a changing world.
Explore →Six permanent thematic research centres: GDP Monitor, Strategic Materials, Migration & Development, Productivity, Gender Economics, and Climate & Bioeconomy.
Explore →Economic impact assessment, real options & risk, ESG & green transition, public finance, international development, and bioeconomy — delivered with academic rigour.
Explore →Chairman of OE International. Professor of Political Economy, Senior Fellow of the Fondazione Tor Vergata, World Bank consultant and author of 208 academic publications.
Explore →OE International is built on a foundational research programme developing for over five decades — integrating the rigour of econometric analysis with the systemic reach of computable general equilibrium modelling to produce a new standard for economic evaluation worldwide.
The classical CGE approach sets model parameters by calibrating to a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), implicitly assuming that observed equilibria are optimal. Scandizzo's integrated approach replaces this with estimated behavioural equations — demand systems, production functions, labour supply curves — derived from econometric analysis of micro and macro data.
The result is a new generation of models — documented in the landmark volume The New Generation of Computable General Equilibrium Models (Springer, 2018) — that are dynamic, stochastic, and capable of integrating real options analysis, climate shocks, pandemic disruptions, and distributional feedback within a single coherent framework.
Econometrically estimated parameters replace calibration. Household surveys, firm data and macro time series feed directly into model structure, giving CGE simulations a statistically defensible empirical base — with confidence intervals, not just point estimates.
Real options theory is embedded within the CGE structure to model irreversibility, optionality and the social rate of discount under climate uncertainty. Stochastic shocks are treated endogenously rather than as external perturbations.
Cost-benefit analysis and SAM/CGE impact evaluation are unified into a single framework. Projects are assessed simultaneously for macroeconomic multipliers, distributional effects, environmental externalities and financial viability.
Combining Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelling with CGE to evaluate policy interventions across business-cycle and structural dimensions simultaneously.
Embedding hydrological cycles and climate transition pathways into Social Accounting Matrices — allowing ecosystem services and carbon pricing to appear as endogenous economic variables.
Extending the CGE-econometric platform to model health as an endogenous public good — capturing feedback loops between human, animal and environmental health.
Developing multi-regional SAM-CGE models tracking biological resource flows, critical mineral supply chains and circular economy transitions.
Each project is evaluated through the integrated CGE-econometric platform — combining macroeconomic multipliers, distributional analysis and real options valuation in a single framework.
Novel global CGE model (160 countries, 14 sectors) integrating precipitation, Total Water Storage (TWS), green and blue water, and WASH health effects. Simulates climate inaction costs under RCP 4.5: GDP losses of 9–15% by 2050, with largest impacts in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA. Identifies optimal water pricing (inverted-U pattern) that offsets climate losses in lower-income economies.
Landmark chapter for the Global Commission on the Economics of Water. 2.9 billion people and 55% of world food production in areas with drying or unstable Total Water Storage trends. Models a "triple dividend" from sound water stewardship: economic resilience, equity and environmental sustainability. Four policy principles for global water security.
Dynamic CGE model with detailed green/blue water accounts and ecosystem services. Tracks material and virtual water flows through the ocean economy value chain. Extended SAM framework for macro policy analysis and specific project evaluation. Published in The New Generation of CGE Models (Springer, 2018).
Two linked projects: a dynamic CGE model studying conservation vs. natural resource management (Serengeti ecosystem — Journal of Policy Modeling 2017), and a regional SEAM model for Kenya focusing on natural resources, water, parks and infrastructure. Key finding: traditional agriculture and mining are more water-intensive than irrigated agriculture due to indirect water consumption.
Applicazione del Principio delle Cattive Notizie (real options theory) all'attuale crisi energetica. Il rischio di blocco dello Stretto di Hormuz spinge i mercati a internalizzare lo scenario peggiore: il PUN supera i 165 €/MWh. L'asimmetria informativa genera auto-rafforzamento recessivo. Proposta di risposta di politica economica con accelerazione del PNRR, emissione di debito comune europeo e investimenti in rinnovabili come scudo antirecessivo.
Analisi tecnica dell'articolo 6 del decreto Bollette: scorporo del costo ETS dal prezzo marginale del sistema elettrico (SMP). Il meccanismo separa il costo della CO₂ dalla formazione del prezzo all'ingrosso, potenzialmente riducendo il prezzo di 6–9 €/MWh (risparmio stimato: 3–3,9 miliardi/anno). Esamina tre nodi critici: compatibilità con la normativa UE sugli aiuti di Stato, impatto distributivo, e uso dei proventi delle aste ETS per la decarbonizzazione industriale.
Land tenure and agrarian reform programme that laid the groundwork for the World Bank's investment strategy in Northeast Brazil. Pioneering use of mind-game techniques to assess risk attitudes of subsistence farmers. Published in The Agrarian Economy of Northeast Brazil (1980). Basis for World Bank investment policy on land tenure.
Training of Somali state officials in Health and Justice sectors. Curriculum design, module preparation and project management. Funded by AICS under the Pubblica Amministrazione Italo-Somala framework. Capacity building in institutional administration for a fragile, post-conflict state.
Landmark volume documenting the paradigm shift from CGE calibration to econometric estimation. Includes CGE models for Mauritius ocean economy, Kenya productivity and investment, Tanzania tourism and biodiversity, and the theoretical framework for integrating DSGE with CGE. Basis for the CLIMAWAT global water model.
CBA framework for ecosystem valuation integrating environmental externalities into public investment appraisal. Applied across developing countries. Develops the methodology for incorporating ecosystem services into CGE impact evaluation — precursor to the CLIMAWAT approach to water as endogenous public good.
Climate change modelled as a twin stochastic Brownian motion process affecting both consumption and productive capacity. Shows that under dynamic uncertainty the social discount rate is linked to volatility in two distinct ways — contradicting standard neoclassical estimates. Foundation for the real options approach to climate investment and adaptation policy.
Robust policy decision method under high uncertainty using option value techniques. Identifies economically beneficial adaptation choices across different climate scenarios without requiring a single probability distribution. Pilot exercise applied to the Campeche region, Mexico — demonstrated the viability of real options for climate adaptation planning in developing countries.
Applicazione della teoria delle real options alla crisi energetica italiana. In presenza di investimenti irreversibili, le cattive notizie dominano le aspettative: le perdite potenziali superano i benefici dello status quo. I mercati internalizzano il principio asimmetricamente, contribuendo a generare la crisi stessa. Il PNRR — accelerato — come scudo antirecessivo immediato e strumento di contrasto nel medio-lungo termine.
Additional projects will be added as documents are uploaded.
Additional projects will be added as documents are uploaded.
Pasquale L. Scandizzo is a Professor of Political Economy, past Director and Fellow of the Center for Economic and International Studies, Senior Fellow and Member of the Advisory Board of the University of Rome "Tor Vergata" Foundation, President of the Villa Mondragone Economic Development Association, President Emeritus of the Italian Society of Development Economics, and Chairman of OpenEconomics International.
Essays by Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo on sovereign debt, global order, the green transition and the deep forces reshaping our world.
How U.S. borrowing and dollar dominance fuel global financial risk — and why the "sovereign debt parlor" may expose the world's most leveraged actor.
Sovereign Debt · Global FinanceThe green transition as anti-project — suspended between technocratic incoherence and Trump's ideological reversal, both leaving rubble rather than solutions.
Green Transition · GovernanceEpistemic uncertainty — "unknown unknowns" — paralyses investment and destroys institutional trust. Ambiguity is the defining feature of our world scenario.
Uncertainty · Decision TheoryThe U.S., global trade and the future of economic order — from creative destruction to strategic realignment in a multipolar world, via Schumpeter.
Geopolitics · World OrderA rigorous macroeconomic reading of the import surge, inventory dynamics and demand switching that drove America's first GDP contraction since 2022.
Macroeconomics · Trade · GDPAnomy, strategic drift and the rebuilding of trust. Populism drives the rise of a "modern prince" — à la Gramsci — who erodes constitutive institutions.
Europe · Governance · PopulismSix thematic research hubs aligned with the Fondazione Tor Vergata / MEF observatory tradition and the ICABR bioeconomy network.
Monthly real GDP estimate using the Faini Observatory model (co-developed with MEF). Italy and global comparisons.
Latest Report →Rare earths, critical minerals, supply chains and circularity. Geopolitical risk mapping for the materials transition.
Latest Report →Global migration flows, development corridors, remittances and social protection policy.
Research →Gender pay gaps, women in leadership and the economic returns of gender-equitable policy.
Policy Brief →The cost of climate inaction, water as a global common good, and applied bioeconomy research (ICABR).
Research →From macroeconomic modelling to real options, ESG and bioeconomy — multidisciplinary teams delivering rigorous, actionable intelligence at every scale.
GDP, employment and fiscal multipliers using SAM and CGE models. Applied to infrastructure, mega-events, tourism and industrial investment.
Valuation under uncertainty using real options theory and advanced CBA incorporating ambiguity, irreversibility and systemic risk.
SROI measurement, EU Taxonomy alignment, green transition roadmaps, IRENA advisory.
Smart public-spending platforms, EU fund programming (PNRR), results-oriented budgeting and digital governance.
Technical assistance for multilateral donors (World Bank, AICS, UNDP), capacity building and policy design.
Applied bioeconomy research (ICABR); pandemic economic modelling; One Health paradigm.
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